Provides an overview to the preceding chapters in the volume. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.2.3) >> President Kenneth Kaunda committed himself and his Government to success in the forthcoming harvest when he told Parliament in January: ‘I am not prepared to see a recurrence of what happened last year when thousands of bags of maize remained uncollected in various depots’; the state would ensure that the agencies involved in the collection of produce improved their performance. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.6.2) >> used to estimate return times for extreme flood events. We conclude that integration of such unique and specific indigenous knowledge systems into other evidence bases of knowledge, could be one of the best ways to the more effective and sustainable implementation of climate change adaptation strategies among target indigenous communities. 137 0 obj A formula in terms of the extremal severity and the T-year return period has been suggested similar to the flood frequency formulae, commonly cited in hydrological texts. After years of agricultural production significantly below domestic consumption needs for key commodities, in 1985 Zambia looked forward to a good harvest of maize, the nation's staple. illustrate some results of its application to a large database (for endobj Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. The results showed that: (1) all indices were able to detect temporal variability of major drought events in a humid subtropical basin in Southern Africa; (2) SWAT successfully simulated runoff and soil moisture although soil moisture requires further calibration to increase accuracy; (3) the average duration and intensity for meteorological droughts at three-month time scale were lower but frequencies were higher compared to agricultural and hydrological droughts at 3- and 12-month aggregates; and (4) drought events exhibited a negative trend as evaluated by Mann-Kendall on SPEI, indicating an increase in drought severity, and correlation analysis between SPEI and SRI revealed that SPEI at 9-15 months has a strong link with hydrological conditions. Natural climate variability can arise from natural forcing mechanism which includes both internal oscillations and external forcing like solar variations, volcanic eruptions and aerosols. The implementation of climate change response programmes for adaptation and resilience is anchored on western scientific knowledge. endobj << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.4.1.1) >> << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.4.1.2) >> endobj Access scientific knowledge from anywhere. Crop production in the Fanteakwa District is predominantly rainfed, exposing this major livelihood activity to the variability or change in rainfall pattern. endobj In the recent past, Mt Makulu had experienced droughts in the seasons 1964/65, 1983/84, 1987/88, 1991/92, 1994/95 and 1997/98 and a high intensity of floods in 2007/08, 2009/2010 (see Fig. endobj Denying famine a future: concluding remarks. 25 0 obj statistical behaviour of the probability tails and the possible The potential effect of climate change on maize production can be studied using crop models such as agricultural production simulator (APSIM) and decision support system for agrotechnology (DSSAT) models. 53 0 obj The assessment is essential for long-term planning in food security and in developing adaptation and mitigation strategies in the face of climate variability and change. Typical rainfall departure patterns, or anomaly types, endobj This paper reported rainfall variability and drought characteristics under climate change in two agro-climatic zones of southwestern Nigeria. 40 0 obj The results of the study show that Southern Zambia has experienced an annual rate of rainfall decrease of 1.10mm which was not statistically significant (p=0.056) and hence does not conclusively prove occurrence of climate change even though variability was apparent. (Data availability) The study conducted in Choma's Mbabala and Singani area assessed the recommended maize varieties for Southern Zambia by seed breeders for purposes of ascertaining the best variety for cultivation in the region. Converting FISP into a sustainable agriculture credit system and provision of markets to all agro-ecologically suitable crops would enable innovative farmers to expand their agriculture and concentrate on crops they have a comparative advantage in. ¹ In the Zambian system of presidentialism and state capitalism, the purchasing, transportation, and storage of crops, as with many other agricultural functions, was in the hands of the state. government of Kenya should empower farmers by providing simple to read, interpret and endobj At times, a third element, drought intensity, is also used and is defined as the ratio of severity to duration. which show a strong opposition between equatorial and subtropical endobj The 1972-73 El Nino off the west coast of South America is a good case in point. nd mapping of small dams in Southern and Lusaka provinces; producing bathymetric and sedimentation maps; and determination of the diversity and abundance of macroinvertebrates on selected small reservoirs. These reflect the patterns derived using northern Africa alone, with 72 0 obj endobj Kenya highly vulnerable—the effects of climate variability and the steady degradation of the nation’s water resources. (Rainfall variability at the urban scale) endobj These elements form a basis for designing water storage systems to cope with droughts. (Rain gauges networks) “N” indicates the number of replicates detected for each standard. This study showed that a comprehensive assessment of droughts by integrating multiple variables provided a versatile tool for drought monitoring and mitigation. (Special issue statement) Assessment of the most suitable of the recommended maize varieties for the region was done by analyzing qualitative data according to themes relating to adaptability to climatic variations, disease resistance, drought tolerance as well as potential yields. endobj However, while Livingstone seems to have experienced more droughts and unreliable rainfall, Kabwe experienced a bigger change in both rainfall and rainy season duration. endobj 69 0 obj �)�5��i�I�{ޮ� XzoD�_4q#���j��/B������]#�m ������kyx�{y(��i�U�2��t]X24�90����@�/�x��� Carbon dioxide, water vapour, methane and chlorofluorocarbons are all greenhouse gases, but they also play a vital role in maintaining the planet's heat balance. The study uses CPC rainfall time series of 12 years, 2001–2012, during the major rainfall period, i.e., southwest monsoon (June–September) over India at 10 km × 10 km pixel for the meteorological drought analysis. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.2) >> For the continent as a whole, six types are also derived. endobj The Mann-Kendall for annual maximum and mean temperature were statistically significant with a positive linear trend (p<0.05). Based on the perceived vulnerability of indigenous communities, many scholars tend to argue generically for the integration of indigenous knowledge into climate change policies and implementation (Ross, 2009; Maldonado et al., 2016; Etchart, 2017). 92 0 obj In Zambia, however, the protocols have not been applied at either regional or local scale. 44 0 obj << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.3.3) >> (Rainfall downscaling) << /S /GoTo /D (section.2) >> The study was constrained by using 38 years of available 6 min rainfall data. principle which can be exploited to model hydrological processes and It is interesting to note that the agreement between the two maps was <50 % in all the 12 years. Yet, knowledge systems rarely develop in isolation as they normally tend to cross-fertilize and benefit from each other. << /S /GoTo /D (subsubsection.3.1.3) >> -C.Barrow (CDS), Data from both the Southern and Northern Hemispheres shows an upward trend in average temperatures over the last hundred years. A total of 112 randomly sampled small-scale farmers from Mbabala and Singani areas were also interviewed on their adaptation measures, coping strategies as well as their preferred maize varieties. 68 0 obj The computationally inexpensive statistical downscaling technique is widely used for this translation. • Projections of future climate change in Michigan suggest a mix of beneficial and adverse impacts. The drought severity has been modelled as the product of the duration and intensity with the assumption of independence between them. a fundamental difficulty: the extreme variability of hydrological 9 0 obj This study examines rainfall variability in the North Central region including the Federal Capital Territory Abuja using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS) application. Additionally, the integrated use of climate and crop models have received relatively less attention in Africa compared to other parts of the world. (Evaporation) Methods. 64 0 obj Given the rural-rural migration pattern observed between the districts, understanding climate change risk to rural livelihoods cannot be overemphasised. the observation scale and yield natural hazards such as floods or The Farmers Input Subsidy Programme is restrictive to innovative farmers wishing to expand or diversify their crops as it only provides specific inputs to cultivate 0.5 ha of land. are examined using a regionally averaged data set comprising the records Climate variability and change has been the most important determinant of crop yields in Kenya and other parts of the world. endobj The El Niño-La Niña episode that occurred from 1997 to 2000 cost the country Ksh 290 billion,about 14 percent of GDP during the three year period. 33 0 obj 16 0 obj endobj endobj The impacts of climate variability on agriculture sector in Tanzania include shifting in agro-ecological zones, prolonged dry episodes, unpredictability in rainfall, uncertainty in cropping patterns, increased weed competition with crops for (moisture, nutrients and light) and ecological changes for pests and diseases (Paavola, 2003, URT, 2007 These disruptions can take a major toll on a country’s economy if a significant part of economic activity is sensitive to the weather and climate. (0.04 MB, The paper attempts to throw some lights on the variability and the reliability of rainfall over the Sudan. -after Author. 29 0 obj 52 0 obj 32 0 obj rainfall and temperature between1983 and 2013, assessed how these trends of climate variability have affected farmers’ perception in climate variability and also explored small-scale farmers’ adaptation strategies. 100 0 obj endobj 116 0 obj The method used to determine the modes of this variability and the trends of rainfall is the chronological graphic method of information processing (MGCTI) of the “Bertin Matrix” and continuous wavelets transform (CWT). endobj endobj • A changing climate leads to many potential challenges for dependent human and natural systems, especially with respect to climate variability. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.3) >> Results also showed that the daily mean temperature (TMm) and mean daily maximum temperature (TXm) had increased from 1963-2012. The maximum warmest daily temperature (TXx) index showed a predominant increase in the monthly and annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature at Mt Makulu. Input data for SRI and SSI computation was obtained from SWAT model which simulated daily and monthly runoff well with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) and coefficient of determination (R²) greater than 0.65. Generally, findings seem to suggest that traditional African knowledge of environmental change may be as old as the society itself, with local knowledge transmitted from one generation to the next. • We use a balanced panel household data set collected in 2000, 2004, 2007 and 2010 from eight agro-regional zones and climate data from 1980 to 2010. whole region. The importance of rainfall variability in successfully understanding the dynamics of climate change in any region cannot be overemphasized. Variability was assessed by the use of 11-year moving average, Coefficient of Variation. << /S /GoTo /D (abstract.1) >> 97 0 obj (Urban hydrological model characterization) Conclusions. endobj (Methods to characterize hydrological process scales) rainfall variability. << /S /GoTo /D (subsection.4.4) >> They are based on a endobj heart rate after 60-second and 240-second tests of the subjects. (Abstract) endobj Additionally, results showed a significant increase in absolute indices as a function of temperature. What was new, however, is that the decreasing rainfall after 1975 seems to be related to the accelerated global warming associated with anthropogenic activities. Two major approaches appear to be prominent in the search for appropriate techniques. endobj 81 0 obj understand and predict floods. 84 0 obj 136 0 obj Data was analyzed using INSTAT version 3.36 software. The 30-year "normal" rainfall was used as the threshold for drought occurrence with most analyses restricted to the 1921- 1970 period. Beside this, a review of the climate status was done. On the other hand, mean temperatures had significantly increased (p=0.001) since 1945 with an annual rate of temperature change of 0.025.AIt was concluded that Southern Zambia has experienced climate change as observed from temperature analysis. meteorological stations. Interesting themes emerge from the knowledge holders themselves and our analysis uncovers a wide range of adaptive coping strategies applied with mixed success. “We use their radar estimates on our rainfall maps to get a more detailed analysis of rainfall It is demonstrated that indigenous knowledge is neither singular nor universal, but rather, a voluminous, diverse and highly localised source of wisdom. << /S /GoTo /D (acknowledgements.1) >> 56 0 obj conditions in the southern subtropics resembling those in subtropical (References) (Rainfall estimation) It clearly appears today that this variability is a function of Maize produced was usually enough for annual consumption before farmers sold about 50 % of the produce. There is also ground to suggest that the rainy season duration is becoming shorter, given that rainfall onset is increasingly starting late, while cessation is increasingly coming early. endobj Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) were used to identify meteorological droughts. Studies on regional climate modeling have mostly focused on Southern Africa and West Africa, with very few studies in Zambia. endobj (Timescale characteristics) drought and plays an important role in the relationship between vulnerability and risk. rainfall are apparent. Drought occurrence patterns in the country in the 12-year time series period were analyzed using mean, inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation CV) and drought frequency of rainfall and rainy days. estimate their statistics over wide ranges of space-time scales. (Urban hydrological models) endobj These include the use of teleconnections and the development of numerical models.Essentially, time-lagged teleconnections rely on the assumption that changes induced in any one area of the world may produce changes elsewhere on a world-wide scale, though time-lagged. Climate change impact on maize (Zea mays L.) yield using crop simulation and statistical downscaling models: A review, Drivers of smallholder farmers' crop production, with special focus on maize, in Choma District, Zambia, Seasonal and intra-seasonal rainfall and drought characteristics as indicators of climate change and variability in Southern Africa: a focus on Kabwe and Livingstone in Zambia, Climate Variability and Change in Southern Zambia: 1910 to 2009, Assessing seed breeders recommended maize varieties for southern zambia-How small-scale farmers have adapted, Climate change adaptation: Linking indigenous knowledge with western science for effective adaptation, Characterization of Droughts in Humid Subtropical Region, Upper Kafue River Basin (Southern Africa), Trends of Extreme Events in Precipitation and Temperature during the 1963-2012 Period at Mt Makulu, Zambia, Changing flows in southern Africa and its relationships to rainfall variations, Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Technologies into the Integrated Small Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Project Final Report Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation Technologies into the Integrated Small Towns Water Supply and Sanitation Project. 124 0 obj Secondary data was used for this study, the data on seasonal output of maize, yam, cassava and cowpea and also total annual rainfall for the periods under endobj Results show that there are wide variations and differences within and between the districts. In order to determine work capabilities in acid-lactic conditions, a 240-second cycle ergometric laboratory test was applied. climate variability and change: farmer perceptions and understanding of intra-seasonal variability in rainfall and associated risk in semi-arid kenya - volume 47 special issue - k. p. c. rao, w. g. ndegwa, k. kizito, a. oyoo endobj The minimum warmest daily temperature (TXn) showed a similar trend for the annual value. The results obtained made it possible to characterize the subjects in terms of work capabilities at a high level of lactic acid in blood during middle-long effort. As a major concern to food production in Ghana, this study seeks to show the relationship between the production of major crops and rainfall distribution pattern in the Worobong Agroecological Area (WAA) relative to foo… (Rainfall measurement and variability in urban regions) t���gځQ��0�������n'�T� j�,cd��_!���H���빵Ӆ���S�~�5��@���7B�c>��.�U*P# ��u��˽B�`� The study suggested how the economic system can be adapted to improve smallholder livelihoods by incentivizing the adoption of conservation farming systems by providing loans to farmers with a successful track record, and also enhancing farmers’ bargaining power by forming marketing partnerships able to bargain on behalf of the farmers in the input and output markets. >> An in-depth investigation of the collected material might prove useful when planning training loads for work on special stamina. (2009) studied monthly rainfall distribution in Nigeria between 1985-1994 and 1995-2004 and noticed some fluctuations in most months within the decades. and variability, focusing in particular on the interaction be-tween rainfall and the other hydrological processes (Blöschl and Sivapalan,1995;Bergstrom and Graham,1998).Blöschl and Sivapalan(1995) presented a graphical representation of spatial and temporal variability of the main hydrologi-cal processes on a logarithmic plane. This study conducted in Southern Zambia assessed climatic variability in the region for the purpose of determining occurrence of climate change over the past 100 years. County. %PDF-1.4 (Spatial and temporal variability in urban hydrological models) Spline, Kriging, and inverse distance weighting interpolation techniques were assessed using daily rainfall data and digital elevation model using ArcGIS. The worst of these was the 1991 to 92 droughts and 2006 to 07 floods (Fumpa-Makano, 2011). However, rainfall changes may not easily be observed as some regions in Southern Zambia may not experience significant variations in long-term rainfall trends. 37 0 obj Satellite global coverage, however, is far greater and, although we have no long time series of satellite data (as opposed to conventional data), it is possible to observe short-term trends, as shown here, that may not be discerned using the coarser-resolution conventional data. The magnitude of the risk involved in the transitional areas is indicated by the percentage probability of receiving critical rainfall values. The increase in sorghum production in regime II could have also been in part because of the drought periods experienced in most parts of Zambia in the 1992/1993 and 1994/1995 agriculture seasons, ... For example, short rainy season (meteorological drought) may affect crop growth and results in crop failure. Keywords: Rainfall over Thailand, EOF, ENSO. endobj Human beings have been adapting to the variable climate around them for centuries. climate variability. The effects of climate change imply that the 125 0 obj endobj << /S /GoTo /D (section.1) >> 113 0 obj 141 0 obj The research included 20 competitors aged 16-17 and 12 competitors aged 18-19. In this paper, focussing on African traditional society, we combine oral history with the available literature to examine traditional knowledge and awareness of climate change and related environmental risks. Prom the present state of knowledge, drought prediction is difficult, if not impossible. 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